A prediction that really blows (no, not Karl Rove’s midterm election forecast)

So the 2006 hurricane season ends this week, and boy was it a doozy. I mean dud.

Seriously, remember those boobs who preyed on our memories of 2005 (the worst year on record, by the way) to offer grim predictions of another destructive storm season? How did that turn out, Roker?

I hate to say I told you so, but – wait a second. That's a lie. No one loves "I told you so" more than me. Sorry for the fib. Anyway, I did my best Nostradamus back in May when I mocked this tidbit of forecasting tom foolery: " There will be up to 16 named storms, the center predicted, which would be significantly less than last year's record 28…Last year, officials predicted 12 to 15 tropical storms."

So what was the *real* final tally for 2006? I'm glad you asked.

The 2006 Atlantic Basin Tropical Season has been a far cry from the record setting season of 2005…There have been 9 named storms which 5 have become hurricanes and only 2 major hurricanes. None of the 2006 hurricanes made landfall in the United States…

So after one of the mildest hurricane seasons on record, where does that leave meteorologists? Maybe they will have learned their lessons and won't fly off the handle with doomsday blizzard forecasts every time a snowflake passes by the Weather Center 3000 this winter.

Maybe…but maybe they'll just hope we won't remember their ineptitude next year – when the National Hurricane Center predicts another apocalypse of biblical proportions. Way to go, douchebags.

Dirty Deeds, Done at the Cost of Hundreds of Millions of Dollars (and one or two elections)

God knows I need something to rant about, and what's better to rant about than douchebag Republicans…especially when it's presented in handy Top 10 format? That is, unless you want more mediocre baseball analysis.

Anyway, just so we get our talking points straight for the 2008 election, here are the Top 10 2006 mid-term election shady tactics:

1. In Maryland, Republicans turn Democrat – being a Republican had such negative connotations this year that three Maryland candidates lied about who endorsed them, handed out "Democratic sample ballots" that listed their names, and hired homeless men to distribute their materials. What, no "I heart abortions" bumper stickers?

2. In Virginia, voter intimidation – some folks were apparently left messages saying that they would be charged criminally if they tried to vote in Virginia. Let's see what the FBI says about this one.

3. The Social Security Administration gets into the act – some Illinois voters received mail from the Social Security Administration that detailed Democrat candidate (and close race loser) Tammy Duckworth's "dangerous" plan to extend benefits to illegal immigrants. There's just one problem: the mailer wasn't from the SSA, it was from the Republican National Committee. Did somebody sail mail fraud?

4. "Not like in Mexico, here there is no benefit to voting." – nearly 14,000 Californians received a letter stating (in grammatically incorrect Spanish) that if they attempted to vote on Nov. 7, they could face jail time or deportation. Every single one of the recipients was a registered Democrat and had a Latino last name. In a shocking development, it was "discovered that campaign officials working for Republican congressional candidate (and staunch supporter of anti-immigration legislation) Tan Nguyen were responsible for composing the letter and compiling names for the mailing list".

5. Blood runs thicker than party affiliation – not exactly GOP dirt here, but it seems that Harold Ford's little brother attempted to pull a Lieberman; that is, if Joe let his daddy distribute fake ballots that misstated his party affiliation.

6. The robot that called. And called. And called – boy I sure did enjoy those auto-dialed election calls (or didn't Bill Clinton leave a personal message on your answering machine? That one's going in my audio scrapbook). Yet it seems I got off easy; voters in some of the most hotly contested House districts received robo-calls " about the local Democrat. But if you hung up, the robot would call back. Hang up again and, like some character out of a Stephen King novel, the robot would call again. And again. And again, sometimes as many as seven times before it gave up. So the voters who had the temerity to want to enjoy their dinner unmolested were left with the impression of a Democratic candidate who simply would not leave them alone; those who stayed on the line were instead treated to a string of disinformation about the Democrat." Thanks, NRCC!

7. Push polls – remember the Michael J. Fox/Rush Limbaugh controversy that erupted over stem cell research as a wedge issue in Missouri? Well, one ostensibly impartial pollster group called Show Me Staters and asked if they supported " medical experiments on babies still in the womb -- and were then told that Democrat Claire McCaskill did". Stay classy, St. Louis.

8. The progressive group that wasn't – Pennsylvania Senator-elect Bob Casey may be a Democrat in name only, but voters were apparently satisfied that he was, at least, not Rick Santorum. No liberal heartthrob, Casey was challenged by outspoken progressives. One catch: the "progressives" lose a lot of clout when they're run by one of the Interloper's cronies. Boy, who would have thought something like this could happen in Pennsylvania?

9. Case of the vanished polling place – voters in at least three states were called with erroneous information that their polling places had been changed and were given directions to new locations that didn't exist. In New Mexico, such a call was traced back to the local Republican Party HQ.

10. And last, but not least -- vigilantes – three Arizona activists waved a gun around as they promoted their anti-immigration agenda outside polling stations. No, I don't feel intimidated. Fuck them wet backs. Can you stop pointing the gun at me now?

Waveland Avenue Politics

Let's face it: I write when I'm mad, and I write what I'm mad about. The midterm elections and the subsequent Bush administration fallout have been great for our country, but devastating for PatRoW's loyal readers.


Therefore I'm forced to turn outside the political spectrum to address an issue that seems to be on everybody's mind today in Chicago – the Cubs' signing of Alfonso Soriano and how the team has become an instant playoff contender.


Sorry to editorialize, but that's a load of hooey. Also, it stinks like yesterday's shit.


Soriano signed with the Cubs for 8 years and $136 million. At an average of $17 million per year, the deal was obviously mirrored after one signed by Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets prior to the 2005 season. The biggest difference? Beltran was actually worth that money (insofar as any one person playing baseball can be worth $17 million a year), while Soriano is not. Let me break it down for you, Bill James style:


* In Soriano's six full MLB seasons, he has hit .281 with 205 homeruns, 556 RBI, 619 runs scored and stolen 208 bases.
* Over his first six full seasons, Beltran hit .284 with 146 homeruns, 562 RBI, 604 runs scored and 189 stolen bases.


Both players have fairly solid post-season stats under their belts (game-ending bases loaded strikeouts not-withstanding) and both play above average outfield defense. Soriano was thought to be something of a malcontent and Beltran something of a recluse, but both have effectively shed the stigmas.


Well, hell, if their resumes are fairly equivalent, so that means their contracts should be, right? Not so fast Jim Hendry. When looking at numbers, you can't forget age – and that's where Soriano should earn serious demerits.


* On his first day in a Cubs uniform, Soriano will be 31 years old. When his contract expires, he will be 38 (and that's if you believe his Dominican Republic birth certificate).
* On his first day in a Mets uniform, Beltran was 27 years old. When his contract expires, he will be 34.

James (and others) has used Sabermetrics to prove that the average baseball player has his best seasons between the ages of 27 and 29. He experiences a slight drop-off from 30-33, and a more sizeable drop-off from 34-36. Too few play past the age of 37 to make a statistically significant observation, but one can safely assume that few players get better (without the Bondsian assistance of performance enhancers).


Their numbers might be fairly equal, but the circumstances were not. Soriano was 25 in his first full season, two years away from a typical player's prime. Beltran was 21 at the start of his first season and still growing as both a player and a man.


Soriano's contract essentially rewards him for the exceptional prime of his career and will pay him handsomely as his abilities slowly deteriorate. In all likelihood, it is the last contract he will ever sign.


Beltran's contract rewarded him for the exceptional build-up to his career and his projected prime. In all likelihood, he will be able to sign another multi-year, multi-million dollar deal when this one expires.


I'm sure that brighter baseball minds than mine can debate Soriano's real value in the open market, but I have yet to hear anyone raise the point that Soriano is coming off a career year (when millions of dollars were at stake…what are the odds?) and is now locked up for big bucks long past when he can be reasonably expected to earn his salary.


I agree that the Cubs are significantly better today than they were on Friday; I just think they're a lot worse off for the rest of the decade.

New York’s super-cool lesbian sister

While I could be content to let my blog lie dormant and bask in the warmth of last week’s election, I know that PatRoW’s ones and ones of readers deserve more. They demand more. And thus, I give you more.

Enjoy this clip that I found online – it features a good friend of mine paying homage to SNL’s Hans and Franz, and Sacha Baron Cohen’s Bruno. I’d say he was ripping them off, but “homage” is much nicer.



If you like what you see, visit his MySpace. Or don’t. I really don’t care.

Quick Hits: Rebel without a Cause

Has it really been a week since the election? Did the Democrats really win both bodies of Congress (I guess I'm the only one who doesn't count 49-49-2 as a win)? Shit…what am I going to get all hot and bothered about now? How about this crap:

Have you heard my rape joke? Maybe it's written for women, and maybe I'll never read one of the articles, but Salon's "Broadsheet" employs the world's best bad headline writer. Remember this one?

Fed up – there's schadenfreude and then there's ironic schadenfreude. Click here to read what might be the last interview Kevin Federline gave as a married man. Also, you can finally learn why the single "Papozao" didn't make it on K-Fed's new album (I'm sure the question has been keeping you awake at night).

Missing in Action – OK, so I can't speak – or write – French. Get over yourself, Kerry.

O.J. Simpson to discuss killings – You gotta hand it to OJ; the guy sure has balls. Not content with literally getting away with murder, the Juice has written a book entitled "If I Did It" in which he discusses how he would have killed Nicole and Ron…but he didn't kill them…this isn't an admission of guilt…but even if it is, fuck you, double jeopardy and all that shit. And which revolting TV network is airing a two-part interview with OJ? Actually, I suppose that's not much of a challenge; I mean, what other network would I call "revolting" and what other network would glorify and glamorize a killer who thumbs his nose at our legal system?

And I'm still talking about OJ…not Rumsfeld.

Does Hillary have a Friend in Iowa? – damn, I love a good conspiracy theory. Especially, one in which a vast liberal network conspires to diminish the value of state primaries and set their party's presidential ticket 23 ½ months before the election. Here's the thing, and I have repeated it too often – Hillary can't win a general election, and she's smart enough to know it. My guess/hope is that Hillary is stepping up as the front-runner now and will absorb the right's attacks until summer 2008 (she's been taking their best shots for almost 15 straight years…she can handle it). Then, seemingly "beaten", Hillary will step aside and a phoenix-like Democratic candidate will rise from her ashes to carry the left and pose an attractive alternative to millions of independents who would never have voted for New York's junior senator.

Missing in Action

I know, I know…the Democrats’ best day in, well, who can remember when, and your buddy PatRoW has nothing to say about it?


Au contraire, mon fraire.


In celebration of Tuesday’s glorious events, I flew to Washington, DC early Wednesday morning and have been celebrating with the movers and shakers of the liberal elite. I’d share some of the stories, but, you know…


Also, I have a conference in suburban Maryland and the internet connectivity at the Rockville Woodfin Suites is spotty, at best. Sorry, true believers.


More on Monday.

Who saw this coming? Tales of electoral deception from the front lines

Despite some positive über-early returns, cautious optimism rules PatRoW land this afternoon. And yet, there is way too much uncertainty for my tastes; while the Interloper is fond of reporting on the alleged success of Iraq’s elections, this year’s American version has been, well, not so hot.


That is, unless you aren’t troubled by broken voting machines leaving Ohioans out in the rain, havoc in Indiana, elected officials in Missouri, South Carolina, Ohio and Ohio (two different politicians) being turned away from the polls (do you think many 9-5ers will come back a second time?), minority voters shut out in Pennsylvania, vandalism in New Jersey and Colorado, and – who’d have thunk it –mistakes made by election officials in Florida.


And of course, there’s the fact that “…the expectations for Democrats are so high now that it will be easy enough for the White House…to spin anything less than control of both houses as a loss.” What can we do? Wake up Wednesday morning and refuse to let GOP arachnids spin their web of deceit, challenge the notion that the Democrats’ win was really a loss, and remind anyone who disputes the truth “that Ken Mehlman, Karl Rove, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney have all predicted unequivocally that Republicans will hold on to both houses of Congress”.


Even if we win, we lose? Somewhere, Al Gore just had a really, really bad flashback.

Where are the hanging chads when you need them?

I was the first to show up this morning at 6:00 when Chicago's polls opened, and was a bit distraught to learn that the 2006 election is apparently doubling as a Windy City arts & crafts project. Yeah…this won't cause any problems.

The local Board of Elections sent me two postcards hyping their new electronic voting machines, but since I knew better, I was prepared to use the standard paper ballot. But this was no standard paper ballot; instead, one had to draw a one centimeter thick line next to a candidate's name, to complete a broken arrow. Confused? I was…and I'm a fucking genius.

Did I mention that it took me 10 minutes to fill out this ballot? Or that there were no available alternatives for the elderly or disabled (besides a wheelchair-friendly voting vestibule)? Oh, the dubious electronic voting machines? They weren't there either.

This is going to be a clusterfuck.

The PatRoW Manifesto

I was in New York this weekend, and spent some time discussing politics with one of PatRoW's most loyal readers – a conversation that helped me crystallize a few important ideas before tomorrow's election:


Talking points – though the self-inflicted damage has been reasonably limited this year, Democrats have still been guilty of confusing rubes the electorate with criticisms of one another and alternate (sometimes conflicting) messages. Republicans, on the other hand, do nothing better than presenting a unified front delivered in simple, and endlessly repetitive talking points.


Think back to the 2004 election and how many times were we bombarded with the notion that John Kerry was a flip-flopper. Sure, he gaffed with his "I voted for the war before I voted against it" line, but here's the thing – he was justified! If not for the Dems' politically cannibalistic natures, our response would have been that Kerry cast aside partisan politics and doubt to support the President of the United States when he made his case before Congress. When proof was discovered of Bush's deception and betrayal, Kerry led the charge against the president's illegal war. Of course, Democrats hemmed and hawed and idiots today still think Kerry is an elitist flip-flopper.


A solution, as Bill Maher suggests, is to come up with some talking points of our own. But I'm afraid this won't work either, and it's because of fundamental differences between liberals and conservatives. Republicans are "ends justify the means" people; they don't mind recycling someone else's verbiage in the effort to win. Democrats tend to be idealistic and care about the process as much as – or more than – the end result. We seem to prefer losing elections over giving up an ounce of our individually reached opinions.


And lose we do…too often…in homes and elections across America.


Two black sheep – speaking about John Kerry, he has officially disappeared from the campaign trail. Of course, I maintain he did nothing wrong, and even – for once – rebutted his critics properly. Yet conservatives continue to harp on Kerry's flubbed joke and may be able to use it to stem the tide of lost congressional seats.


Let me make this clear to the kind of people who probably aren't reading this – John Kerry should be an election non-sequitur. And let me make this clear to the kind of people who are (or should be) reading – so should Ted Haggard.


Haggard is a hypocrite, clearly, and most likely a liar as well. He's admitted to some of the allegations against him and denied others. We will probably never know the full truth, but we do know this – his transgressions hurt this country's "moral majority" movement, but we hurt liberal causes by politicizing the scandal for our own benefit. I don't believe that the Ted Haggards of the world are good people because of what they preach, but I similarly don't believe they are bad people because of what they (allegedly) practice.


Of course, basking in the schadenfreude is perfectly OK.


Illegal immigration – Some news show held an election focus group in a Columbus, Ohio diner. One key topic came up there that has come up across the country – illegal immigration.


There's a line in "The Usual Suspects" in which Kevin Spacey's character opined that "the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist". Well, the greatest trick the Republicans ever pulled was convincing the country that "liberal" is a 4-letter word. Their second-greatest trick? Convincing Middle America that illegal immigration is a problem affecting their lives.


People of Ohio – listen closely because I'm only going to say this once. You didn't lose your assembly line and/or manufacturing jobs to "border-jumping wetbacks"; you lost them because our economy has become increasingly global and technology-based. The noble blue collar, dirty fingernails jobs that supported your family for generations have a limited role in 21 st Century America. This is unfortunate for you, of course, but illegal immigration is not the problem. What's the solution? Encourage your kids to learn Mandarin, Arabic and how to program your computer (setting the VCR clock just doesn't cut it anymore). At least they'll get to live the American dream you were unfortunate enough to miss out on.


Scandals, Lies and Doing Something about It – do you know anybody who is still undecided about the election? Well, the first step is to find out if your town allows the comatose to vote. The second step is to show them this – a "hit list" of atrocities perpetuated by the Interloper's administration in the last two years alone…clearly reason enough to persuade any independent with a brain that our country needs a change. Or, enough to shut up any conservative who likes to lie about how the world is a safer and better today than it was a few short years ago.

Check him out now

Few, if any, Republican congressional challengers will unseat Democratic incumbents tomorrow, but that hasn't slowed down Wisconsin's Paul R. Nelson and one of the most hilariously nasty campaigns in recent memory. You remember him, right?

Nelson's new ad can be summed up by two words: Bruce and Bubba. I didn't realize that the Badger State was facing a full frontal assault on marriage by partridges in pear trees. No really.

Say what you want about this douche – and I have – but he does have one redeeming quality. And I swear to you, you will have this song stuck in your head all day.

If you use an electronic voting machine, the terrorists win

Or at least, the Republicans. But if the last six years have taught us anything, it's that if the Republicans win, the terrorists win. And big business. And incompetent cronies – incompetent cronies win a lot too.

You see, I read a pretty shocking story about the ease with which mischief-minded hackers or douchebag election-fixing officials (I'm looking at you, Ohio) have altering results tabulated by electronic voting machines. And to think – I even bought a brand new 2006 Mid-Term Election Commemorative Electronic Voting Booth Touch Screen Stylus and everything! I don't think germophobetechnophile.com offers a refund…

Loyal PatRoWians, I call on you to watch the HBO documentary and cast your ballot on Tuesday the old fashioned way. I know it's a sacrifice; believe me, I'm not looking forward to the human interaction or – perish the thought – eye contact any more than you are.

Where was this guy two years ago?

Remember when John Kerry was "Swift Boated" into passivity during the 2004 election? Well, apparently he has learned how to fight GOP smear campaign tactics 101…and only two years too late.

I'm sure you've heard by now about the flack Kerry received over a "botched joke" he made Monday while campaigning with California gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides. Kerry said, "You know, education -- if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well. If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq." After some early questions about and criticisms of this quote, Kerry clarified that he was referring to President Bush as the one who didn't do his homework and is now stuck in Iraq.

Of course, the Interloper happily seized on the opportunity to go on the offensive (apparently, some folks have been tough on him recently), dispensing Tony Snow to spew some badly-drawn conclusions:

Senator Kerry not only owes an apology to those who are serving, but also to the families of those who have given their lives in this. This is an absolute insult, and I'm a little astonished that he didn't figure it out already… Meanwhile, it's probably reasonable to ask some of the Democrats -- ask Jim Webb or Tammy Duckworth, both of whom are citing their military record, "Okay. What do you think about? What do you think about this quote? Do you agree with him? He was your presidential nominee."

How's that again, douchebag? No matter the ridiculous notions that GOP vultures attempted to seize upon, Kerry himself has stepped up to quash such talk and launch a counter-attack. He released a statement yesterday that addressed the debate, calling it "the classic GOP playbook" from "a stuffed suit White House mouthpiece", "doughy rush Limbaugh" and "Republican hacks who have never worn the uniform of our country [that] lie and distort so blatantly about those who have".

Wow, pretty tough words from a man who "looks French". And you know what else? Kerry was just getting warmed up. At a press conference, the Senator hit back even harder:

This president and his administration didn't do their homework. They didn't study what would happen in Iraq. They didn't study and listen to the people who were the experts and would have told them. And they know that's what I was talking about yesterday.

I think Americans are sick and tired of this game. These Republicans are afraid to stand up and debate a real veteran on this topic. And…they want to debate strawmen because they're afraid to debate real men. Well, we're going to have a real debate in this country about this policy. The bottom line is: These Republicans want to distort this policy. And, this time, it won't work because we are going to stay in their face with the truth. No Democrat is going to be bullied by these people, by these kinds of attacks that have no place in American politics. It's time to set our policy correct. They have a stand-still-and-lose policy in Iraq, and they have a cut-and-run policy in Afghanistan. And the fact is, our troops, who have served heroically, who deserve better, deserve leadership that is up to their sacrifice -- period.

Can you imagine where we would be today if Kerry has used this tactic – standing up to, not cowering before, deliberately misleading GOP smear campaigns? Oh, I'm sure we'd still be in Iraq. We will be there during the 2008 election, and likely for some years after that as well – no matter which party controls Congress or the White House.

No, if Kerry – and other Democrats – had stood up for the truth, rather than issue quick apologies so as not to offend any possible vote, perhaps he would not be president today, but surely he'd have made it a tighter race. And if Kerry and the Dems employ this strategy from now on, well, maybe this is the first cause for real optimism that a tougher Democratic Party can draw support from the middle of the country without sacrificing their ideals or placating every dissenting voice.

Then again, Democratic candidates around the country are taking Kerry appearances off their campaign schedules, and some are even joining the White House in calling for his apology. Oh well. That was a nice few minutes of solidarity and basking in warmth of the moral high ground.