Seven Heaven?

We are one week away. Things are looking good. The Interloper continues to make an ass of himself. Why can't I be optimistic?

Perhaps it's alarmingly naïve logic like this:

If the election were held today, and if the latest polls turned out to be accurate predictors of the outcome -- and let's be clear here, it's too early to start assuming either of those things -- Democrats would hold on to seats in Maryland and New Jersey and pick up seats in Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Ohio and Virginia. If Democrats pick up either Missouri or Tennessee, they take the Senate. If they don't, Dick Cheney spends the next two years breaking 50-50 ties in favor of the GOP.

But here's the thing – that's not exactly true. Cheney's vote means that 50/50 split is still a Republican majority, at least until after the 2008 elections (and likely after those elections as well). And what about Joe Lieberman – why are we counting the Independent candidate in the "Democrat" column? Oh sure, he'll be receptive to some core liberal ideals, but don't you think he'll be the least bit bitter that he lost the financial support of the party that nominated him as its #2 guy six years ago?

If Democrats pick up either Missouri or Tennessee, they will indeed have taken the Senate 50-49-1 (Lieberman's independent vote would be as meaningless as Cheney's tie-breaker). And aren't we putting the cart before the horse a bit in Virginia? Let's not overreact to one poll, which may or may not have been unfairly skewed by the days of the week in which information was collected (although I'd love to ask national GOP consultant Christopher J. LaCivita, how or why "everybody knows surveys conducted Fridays and Saturdays…are skewed toward Democrats.").

The House still looks like a safer bet, although some of the left's most respected voices still have their doubts about that as well.