Let's face it: I write when I'm mad, and I write what I'm mad about. The midterm elections and the subsequent Bush administration fallout have been great for our country, but devastating for PatRoW's loyal readers.
Therefore I'm forced to turn outside the political spectrum to address an issue that seems to be on everybody's mind today in Chicago – the Cubs' signing of Alfonso Soriano and how the team has become an instant playoff contender.
Sorry to editorialize, but that's a load of hooey. Also, it stinks like yesterday's shit.
Soriano signed with the Cubs for 8 years and $136 million. At an average of $17 million per year, the deal was obviously mirrored after one signed by Carlos Beltran of the New York Mets prior to the 2005 season. The biggest difference? Beltran was actually worth that money (insofar as any one person playing baseball can be worth $17 million a year), while Soriano is not. Let me break it down for you, Bill James style:
* In Soriano's six full MLB seasons, he has hit .281 with 205 homeruns, 556 RBI, 619 runs scored and stolen 208 bases.
* Over his first six full seasons, Beltran hit .284 with 146 homeruns, 562 RBI, 604 runs scored and 189 stolen bases.
Both players have fairly solid post-season stats under their belts (game-ending bases loaded strikeouts not-withstanding) and both play above average outfield defense. Soriano was thought to be something of a malcontent and Beltran something of a recluse, but both have effectively shed the stigmas.
Well, hell, if their resumes are fairly equivalent, so that means their contracts should be, right? Not so fast Jim Hendry. When looking at numbers, you can't forget age – and that's where Soriano should earn serious demerits.
* On his first day in a Cubs uniform, Soriano will be 31 years old. When his contract expires, he will be 38 (and that's if you believe his Dominican Republic birth certificate).
* On his first day in a Mets uniform, Beltran was 27 years old. When his contract expires, he will be 34.
James (and others) has used Sabermetrics to prove that the average baseball player has his best seasons between the ages of 27 and 29. He experiences a slight drop-off from 30-33, and a more sizeable drop-off from 34-36. Too few play past the age of 37 to make a statistically significant observation, but one can safely assume that few players get better (without the Bondsian assistance of performance enhancers).
Their numbers might be fairly equal, but the circumstances were not. Soriano was 25 in his first full season, two years away from a typical player's prime. Beltran was 21 at the start of his first season and still growing as both a player and a man.
Soriano's contract essentially rewards him for the exceptional prime of his career and will pay him handsomely as his abilities slowly deteriorate. In all likelihood, it is the last contract he will ever sign.
Beltran's contract rewarded him for the exceptional build-up to his career and his projected prime. In all likelihood, he will be able to sign another multi-year, multi-million dollar deal when this one expires.
I'm sure that brighter baseball minds than mine can debate Soriano's real value in the open market, but I have yet to hear anyone raise the point that Soriano is coming off a career year (when millions of dollars were at stake…what are the odds?) and is now locked up for big bucks long past when he can be reasonably expected to earn his salary.
I agree that the Cubs are significantly better today than they were on Friday; I just think they're a lot worse off for the rest of the decade.
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